Comments on: Poverty and juggling http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/ Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:36:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.1 by: Perry E. Metzger http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1909 Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1909 I'm generally suspicious of synthetic statistics like poverty figures. If you are attempting to assess economic progress, it is much easier to look at objectively measurable figures. For example, here in the U.S., many politicians, using similar synthetic metrics, claim the poor have made no progress in the last thirty years, but if you look at any objective measure -- the percentage of people without indoor plumbing went from 7% to 0.6%, for example -- you find that massive progress has been made. For an example of the power of such statistics, see this article: http://techcentralstation.com/071504B.html I would concentrate on figures like how many people have telephones, how many have indoor plumbing, how many electricity, etc. These numbers cannot be easily "gamed" the way that poverty "statistics" can be gamed. At worst, such statistics can be lied about, but they can't be re-defined into meaninglessness, and people disbelieving the reported numbers can easily conduct independent surveys to assure they are accurate. Tracking such statistics through time is the most important part. It is much more significant to say that the number of people with indoor plumbing rose from 8% to 15% than it is to merely note that it is 8% or 15%. I’m generally suspicious of synthetic statistics like poverty figures. If you are attempting to assess economic progress, it is much easier to look at objectively measurable figures.

For example, here in the U.S., many politicians, using similar synthetic metrics, claim the poor have made no progress in the last thirty years, but if you look at any objective measure — the percentage of people without indoor plumbing went from 7% to 0.6%, for example — you find that massive progress has been made. For an example of the power of such statistics, see this article: http://techcentralstation.com/071504B.html

I would concentrate on figures like how many people have telephones, how many have indoor plumbing, how many electricity, etc. These numbers cannot be easily “gamed” the way that poverty “statistics” can be gamed. At worst, such statistics can be lied about, but they can’t be re-defined into meaninglessness, and people disbelieving the reported numbers can easily conduct independent surveys to assure they are accurate.

Tracking such statistics through time is the most important part. It is much more significant to say that the number of people with indoor plumbing rose from 8% to 15% than it is to merely note that it is 8% or 15%.

]]> by: Ravikiran Rao http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1910 Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1910 Unfortunately Peter, the state of data collection being what it is in India, all those statistics are hard to come by. In fact, poverty in India is measured not by income, but by food consumption, which is what you'd want. But there too, the exercise seems to have got stuck in methodological issues. Unfortunately Peter, the state of data collection being what it is in India, all those statistics are hard to come by.

In fact, poverty in India is measured not by income, but by food consumption, which is what you’d want. But there too, the exercise seems to have got stuck in methodological issues.

]]> by: kautilya http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1911 Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1911 Defining the poverty line is like asking people to interpret an ink blot pattern. Everybody comes up with varied definations. Food consumption alone cannot be a criteria there has to be som kind of a standard based on standard of living/cost of living other wise the figures are just figures they make no difference to individuals. Defining the poverty line is like asking people to interpret an ink blot pattern. Everybody comes up with varied definations.
Food consumption alone cannot be a criteria there has to be som kind of a standard based on standard of living/cost of living other wise the figures are just figures they make no difference to individuals.

]]> by: Perry E. Metzger http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1912 Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1912 BTW, statistics are pretty easy to come by. You just have to collect them independently instead of relying on the government. A random sample of a few thousand people across India would be sufficient for extremely good statistical significance. Sampling theory very easily tells you how large a sample you need for any given level of confidence. I'd say it is important that such statistics be gathered independently of the government anyway -- otherwise, how do you know you can trust their figures? Government has a tremendous incentive to lie about economic statistics. BTW, statistics are pretty easy to come by. You just have to collect them independently instead of relying on the government.

A random sample of a few thousand people across India would be sufficient for extremely good statistical significance. Sampling theory very easily tells you how large a sample you need for any given level of confidence.

I’d say it is important that such statistics be gathered independently of the government anyway — otherwise, how do you know you can trust their figures? Government has a tremendous incentive to lie about economic statistics.

]]> by: Ravikiran Rao http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1913 Tue, 30 Nov 1999 00:00:00 +0000 http://www.yazadjal.com/2004/09/16/poverty-and-juggling/#comment-1913 True, but in this case the question is whether poverty has declined in India over the past ten years or so. So you need data across time and I don't think any private or even semi private organisation has been collecting data for so long in India. Besides it is tough to convince an NGO or a professional doomsayer using data collected by a private organisation. There aren't any easy answers. True, but in this case the question is whether poverty has declined in India over the past ten years or so. So you need data across time and I don’t think any private or even semi private organisation has been collecting data for so long in India. Besides it is tough to convince an NGO or a professional doomsayer using data collected by a private organisation.

There aren’t any easy answers.

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