Um no
Published by Ravikiran Rao December 6th, 2003 in Political TheatreBut Anya misunderstands. The state of the Congress Party has really nothing to do with its performance in the state elections. It could have swept these elections and I’d still have predicted that it would lose in the General Elections next year.
Why do Congressmen stick on to Sonia as their leader when they clearly know that she is a liability where votes are concerned? Because she “keeps the party together”. That is why Jivha’s hope(?) that she should be replaced will not get fulfilled. The problem is not just that the Congress is faction-ridden. At the central level, the situation has moved beyond factionalism. No one will make a lunge for the Central Leadership because it is no longer worth the effort. Anyone who has a go at the Centre will be opposed by all the other contenders. He will be driven out of the party - like Sharad Pawar. Even if by some chance he succeeds, he won’t remain there for long. So, although you find many good leaders at the state level, none of them is interested in leading the party at the Centre.
And none of them are even interested in seeing Sonia becoming the Prime Minister. What do they get out of it? Sonia will immediately act to cut them all to size, as any insecure person who has too much power will be prone to. She is useful to these leaders only as a token leader who keeps the party from splitting and keeps all the other contenders from coming to power. So my guess would have been that even if the Congress won in these elections, it would lose later. Now of course, it will get so demoralized that it will probably lose really badly.
Pretty much so. There is one factor we are not looking at though. That is the entry of Priyanka Vadra. She is a tremendous crowd puller, and I am sure the Congress (and Sonia) will pull her into this next year. She has the charm AND the Gandhi blood. She has me worried.
So, in essence what I am saying is that - I wouldn’t write the congress off yet.
Precisely! In fact India’s ’secular’ intellectuals are more interested in the Congress party winning than congressmen/women. Probably thats the one thing that keeping the congress in contention.
As noted in one news item (I forget where), almost 5 crore of Indians were born after Indira Gandhi’s assassination..many of them voters now. Congress’s penchant for hanging on the the Nehru-Gandhi name only befuddles them…Congress seriously lacks a cohesive and distinct identity.
Sorry to nitpick Patrix, but it is just over 19 years since Indira Gandhi got assasinated.
So if in fact 5 crore Indians were born after that and if we assume that these 5 crore Indians were evenly distributed, there are approx 26 lakh Indians of voting age born after Indira was shot.
To put the 26 lakh figure in perspective, it is 2 parliamentary constituencies worth of people distributed over 542.
I suspect that you got this figure from India Today, which has been driving me to aggravation with its penchant for coming up with cool sounding statistics which are essentially meaningless.
I’ll have to say that in case of the Congress, their micro-management at a constituency level isn’t the same as their national management policies. And that resonance is causing their losses. Which is in other words, what you say too in terms of the factionalisation.
But I wouldn’t think Sonia Gandhi in the power seat would try to cut everyone down to size - she’s more of a everyone come together person which is why the varied interests within the congress is tearing the party apart. That seems unlikely to change even with her getting more powerful. But that’s a moot discussion in political psychology.
My two bits: I think these state elections are irrelevant in the larger picture of the Lok Sabha Elections next year. The 1998 state elections too had no impact on the 1999 Lok Sabha polls. In 1998, the Congress won handsomely in Delhi, Rajasthan and MP (landslides in Delhi and Raj.) but lost a majority of Lok Sabha seats in the three states in 1999. (In Delhi lost in all 6 LS seats)
My gut feeling is that next year both the BJP and Congress will end up winning between 150 to 180 seats in the LS. The party with the ability to pull in 100-120 seats from its allies will form the govt. The BJP has a much better record on the alliances front. The Congress will need to work on that area NOW if it is to take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor working against the BJP.
“The 1998 state elections too had no impact on the 1999 Lok Sabha polls”
That’s because there was this little thing called Kargil in between. If I remember correctly in 1998 it was almost a given that the BJP would do badly in 1999.
The age of waves has given way to the age of swings. I suspect that the opinion polls weren’t all that off base in their predictions - they got the mood of the voters correctly. It just happened that the BJP cadre did a better job of getting out the vote, engineering the right swings in the crucial constituencies, etc. What they did now, they can do better next year, because the morale is up and people will work more enthusiastically. The congress hasn’t that momentum.
Apart from Kargil, the 1999 elections were unscheduled — the BJP lost a vote of no confidence (by 1 vote). It is said that a week is a long time in politics. Let’s wait and watch — not for nothing is it called a political theatre. I’ve booked my tickets!
Guys what ever said and done, i for one will never caste my vote to a Foreigner.And tell me how many of u will? As Ravi rightly pointed out sonia is a liablity for congress.And voting for priyanka still more absurd!!.Who is she in politics?.I really pity congress now.
It will be heaven to have an Italian Prime Minister of India — just think — two great cultures, two great cuisines. Aaah! Oooh!